Introduction
这次需要代写的作业比较有意思，根据提供的历史数据中，各场比赛的得分情况，来预测本次球赛的每个球队的胜率。
类似世界杯赛场的大数据预测，不过作业的模型和公式要简单许多。
最终冠军和初始分组有关，事实上并没有一支球队能够稳拿冠军，每次模拟的结果都不同。
程序语言不限，甚至允许用Objective-C, Perl以及Ruby来写。选择用Python因为编写和调试方便。
Instructions
Please provide a write-up of your analysis in a PDF document. Make sure to
state any modeling assumtpions you make. If you need to write code, you may
use any of the following programming languages: C, C#, C++, Java, Objective-C,
Perl, Python, or Ruby. Please include your source code as part of your
submission.
Requirement
The National Funball League (NFL) runs a series of funball games each year.
This time period is colloquially known as funball season. The goal of funball
is to score the most points. Many cities have their own funball teams and
compete in the NFL. Despite the name, funball is very serious and the games
are extremely competitive.
In June after the regular season, the NFL hosts a single-elimination
tournament to determine the best funball team. Win or go home! The winner gets
a year’s worth of bragging rights and claim to a rotating trophy.
In an attempt to make the tournament as exciting as possible, the NFL pairs
stronger teams with weaker teams in the early rounds expecting that only the
best teams will be left at the end of the tournament. The process of ranking
teams is called seeding. Lower seed values indicate stronger teams.
For logistical reasons, the tournament is broken into 4 regions: N, S, E, and
W.
The tournament is so popular that several derived games have appeared. Among
the most popular is a pick’em challenge where players attempt to pick all of
the winners in the tournament before any tournament games are played. In
recent years, the pick’em challenge has been hosted by Sanguine Bank which
offered a million dollar prize to anyone who could pick all of the correct
teams.
Questions
Let p(A) be the winning percentage of team A and p B be the winning percentage
of team B. Assume we use the formula 1 to estimate the probability that A wins
in a matchup against B.
P(A wins|A and B play) = p(A)(1 - p(B)) / p(A)(1 - p(B)) + (1 - p(A))p(B)
Using this formula, which year’s tournament results had the highest
probability?
To answer this question, please use the attached data.
- regular season results.csv
- seasons.csv
- teams.csv
- tourney results.csv
- tourney seeds.csv
- tourney slots.csv
Sanguine Bank has decided that the payout of the pick’em challenge is too
risky. They contacted Auspicious Insurance Group (AIG) for a quote on a
special insurance contract that covers the payout from the challenge. How much
should AIG charge Sanguine Bank for the insurance
contract? It is sufficient to explain your approach; no code or amounts are
required for this question.
